Published October 4, 2026 in Market Update

Inventory is up, but the market is not exactly loose

By Angie Stumbo

Real estate, Primary market

You walk into a store with more shelves stocked than last year. But there are more shoppers too. That is roughly where this market sits right now. 🙂

The National Association of Realtors put U.S. supply at 4.9 months, the highest level in over ten years. Here at home, the Real Estate Data Aggregator counted 557 homes for sale across the primary market in the three months ending July 31, 2026. That is more choice. But 489 of those homes had a pending sale. Buyers are not sitting out.

More listings means more competition if you are selling. Pricing matters more than it did a year ago. Not every home sold fast. In ZIP 37327, the Real Estate Data Aggregator recorded a median of 92 days on market. In ZIP 37373, it was 7 days. Same market, very different reads.

Rates are not helping buyers right now

Freddie Mac put the average 30-year fixed rate at 7.28% as of October 1, 2026. The 15-year averaged 6.60%. Realtor.com noted rates crossed 7% in late September for the first time since January 2025. CNBC reported the average contract rate for 30-year conforming loans rose to 7.30% last week. That is real money added to a monthly payment.

Realtor.com also reported that rates climbed nearly 40 basis points over the four weeks before October 1, 2026. That kind of move in a short window changes what a buyer can afford.

ZIP by ZIP: the spread is wide

The primary market is not one market. It is eleven ZIP codes that read very differently from each other.

ZIP 37379 had 3 months of supply and a median sale price of $416,250, up 11% from a year before, per the Real Estate Data Aggregator. ZIP 37332 had 7.7 months of supply. That is the difference between a market that still leans toward sellers and one where buyers have real room to compare.

ZIP 37373 is a small sample, only 12 homes sold. But the Real Estate Data Aggregator showed a sale-to-list ratio of 105.6% and 41.7% of homes selling above list price. Bold numbers. Worth knowing what street you are on before you read too much into them.

Prices dipped in some ZIPs, rose in others

Not every ZIP moved the same direction. The Real Estate Data Aggregator showed the median in ZIP 37379 up 11% year over year. ZIP 37367 was up 8.6%. ZIP 37341 was up 6.6%.

On the other side, ZIP 37338 was down 34.2% and ZIP 37308 was down 30.3%. Those are big swings. Small ZIP codes with few sales can move sharply when the mix of homes that sold changes. It does not always mean every home lost value.

Nationally, home prices rose 3.7% year over year in August on a seasonally adjusted basis, according to Realtor.com. Active listings nationally were up 6.3% from a year ago, the fastest pace in at least six months, also per Realtor.com.

How fast did homes move?

ZIP 37379 was 11 days shorter than a year ago. ZIP 37322 was 14 days shorter. ZIP 37381 was also 14 days shorter. Homes are moving a little quicker in several ZIPs, even as supply climbs. That is the tension in this market.

What this means if you own here

More homes on the market means your listing has more competition. The Real Estate Data Aggregator showed the average sale-to-list ratio across individual ZIPs ranging from 94.8% in ZIP 37381 to 105.6% in ZIP 37373. Where your home lands on that range depends a lot on price and condition.

Realtor.com reported that homes under contract nationally were down 4.1% year over year. The National Association of Realtors reported existing-home sales decreased 2.0% in August 2026. But year-to-date through the first eight months of 2026, existing-home sales were still up 1.6%, per the National Association of Realtors. So the picture is mixed, not broken.